Why Dogecoin to $1 is Only a Matter of Time
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The Bubble
It’s February of 2021, and let’s be completely honest: We’re in a bubble. It’s kind of like 1999 but not the same. In 1999, interest rates were much higher. Today, they are nearly zero. In some countries, they are even negative. From a long-term perspective, this is very bad.
The Federal Reserve is completely to blame for this. Their policies are entirely reckless, and officials refuse to acknowledge what is going on here. The Coronavirus hysteria caused by the media and enabled by officials made the crash last summer the worst man-made disaster in the history of our financial system. The Great Depression was caused by over-speculation and a lack of regulation in an emerging financial system. The Great Recession was caused by greed and fraud (strangely, no one is in jail for this). This market collapse was caused by elected officials and the fed, who got trigger-happy and cut rates to zero back in the spring of 2020.
Whatever we wind up calling the burst of this bubble is to be determined. It will, however, be entirely manmade because the fed refuses to acknowledge the speculative behavior currently going on in SPACs, Cryptos, Penny Stocks, and anything else that serves as a legal Ponzi scheme for inflating the bubble. Even real, dividend-paying stocks have gotten way overvalued in some sectors. Also, since the fed has no plans of raising rates within the next two years (so they say for now, at least), if you’re searching for yield, you have nowhere else to look than the equities markets or one of these legalized forms of Ponzi schemes. It’s extremely unfair to conservative or retired investors looking for an honest return on their savings. This all is actually why it is a great time to look at Dogecoin, as I will get to in a moment. So long as rates are near zero, the bubble will continue to go on for longer and longer. And while it continues, people will constantly look for the next big thing.
For How Long?
Now, this may sound all doom and gloom, but that’s not my point. One day the bubble will burst, but I’m not making a prediction of when that will happen. Anyone making up dates for when the bubble will burst is either clueless or a con artist. No one knows when this bubble will burst. It could be weeks, months, or even years. One thing is for sure, the bubble will not burst just because things are overvalued. That’s not how bubbles work.
There needs to be a catalyst to burst the bubble. A major military conflict. An unexpected move or comment by the fed (raising rates, calling out the bubble for what it is, etc.). Another nationwide lockdown. I can go on with examples, but a little selloff here and there (August 2020) that causes the financial media to lose its mind is not enough. Just because you claim the bubble is bursting isn’t enough either. If you follow the media, you will get burned over and over again. That’s how it works. They want you to go to their sponsors for help, and once they burn you (sell you gold, overcharge you for poor investments, etc), you’ll come back to them hoping to figure things out. It’s a shell game. When the bubble burst, it will happen extremely fast and unexpectedly. There’s nothing wrong with playing the bubble, but you need to be mindful of when it ends because once the music stops, there will be a mad rush for the exits. You don’t want to be stuck holding the bag because everything will get crushed when the bubble burst. Even the blue-chip stocks that pay solid dividends will get hammered.
Fundamentals Don’t Matter (For Now)
In this bubble environment, fundamentals don’t make sense and, quite frankly, they don’t matter. You can argue back and forth all day long about whether something has a practical future or whether something is overvalued. I’m not here to do that about Dogecoin, Bitcoin, or any other crypto. The same could be said about Penny Stocks right now. (Hint: virtually all of these companies are way overvalued). You can find tons of articles of that nature, and I’m not likely to change your preconceived notions anyway. If we look at all the irrational bubbles that have occurred lately, you are a complete fool if you believe that TSLA or BTC is worth nearly a trillion dollars. It’s worth nowhere near that valuation.
How do I determine what something is worth, and who do I mean? It is called the market cap. In layman’s terms, that is where you take all the stock shares and multiply it by the share price. And I’m not recommending buying or selling TSLA or BTC, I’m just pointing out that these valuations are absurd. Does that mean they will not pass 1 trillion dollars? Of course not. There’s a very reasonable chance they do pass a $1 trillion market cap. That sounds absurd to write but it’s true. When the bubble bursts, you better believe fundamentals will be back in play. This disconnect can’t last forever. But it can go on for a while. And while it lasts, we all want to make some money
A Quick Word About ALL Cryptos
While I don’t believe Cryptocurrencies are going anywhere (as in, people will always buy and sell them), I also do not see any APPLICABLE future in them other than trading with other people. In fact, the biggest use I see of Cryptocurrencies is for illegal and untraceable transactions. The government will do all they can over the next several years to bring in lost tax revenue and track transactions better, but that’s the extent to which Cryptos will have relevance. How do I know this? Because the federal reserve, which is backed by the taxing authority of the US Government and the might of the US military, isn’t about to let some alternative currency usurp the US dollar. How do you think we can afford to provide all this government stimulus to fight Covid? If you think about this, you will see why other countries are much worse off. They must play by our rules, while we get to export our inflation to other countries because they must use the USD to buy commodities on the international exchanges (look at what happened when Saddam tried to circumvent this). If they print more money, their currency gets devalued. That’s why as bad as things look, relatively speaking, the US isn’t in terrible shape compared to the rest of the world.
If your financial future is so married to Bitcoin, ask yourself this: what happens if your account gets hacked? Who will you call? Who will make you whole again? If you have a brokerage account with legitimate stocks, there are regulations in place. There is the SIPC which protects again brokerage failure. With Bitcoin, you are completely gambling. This lack of regulation and lack of price stability means that there is no viable path to Bitcoin being a legitimate currency. Does it mean people can buy and sell it? Of course. But if you are in the cult of believing that Bitcoin is the future world reserve currency, you need to get your head examined.
Gold and Silver con artists have been trying for decades for people to get on this alternative currency train. At least gold and silver have some practical industrial applications. And hundreds of years of history on its side. Crypto isn’t anything but something people agree upon as having value. Why do I point this out? Because the one thing you need to do is separate yourself from what you think you know about Crypto and Blockchain, etc. While it all sounds cool and revolutionary, it really doesn’t matter. The US government could easily create their own form of Crypto that gives them more control. The decentralized part just doesn’t jive with our current global hegemony. If you don’t understand this, you should think more and read less. Once you accept this, you can start to see all Crypto as fundamentally worth the same: virtually nothing. The technicals, however, are why we want to look at Dogecoin.
Relative Valuation of Dogecoin
Now that you understand a little more background into where we are, I believe Dogecoin is extremely undervalued. Why? It’s simple. Relative valuation. This is one of the easiest and most efficient ways to compare investments. Ok, so maybe this isn’t really investing anymore; it’s gambling. Still, we can apply the same concept. Imagine two companies: they are in the same industry and have similar margins, earnings, growth prospects, etc. One company is valued at $50 billion and costs $120 per share, and one is valued at $85 billion and costs $80 per share. Which one would you invest in? Of course, you would invest in the one that is worth $50 billion at $120 per share. The cost per share means absolutely nothing. It is psychological.
Now, you say Dogecoin isn’t on par with Bitcoin and that where I’m going with this isn’t a fair comparison. Go back and read the last section. That’s why I wrote about the practical applications of Cryptocurrencies in general. None of that matters. The only thing that matters is the general sentiments shared by people that buy and believe in Cryptocurrency. So, let’s look at the current valuations:
Bitcoin – Price $40,500, Market Cap $755B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
Dogecoin – Price $.05, Market Cap $4.4B (estimated as of 2-6-21)
(Source: Yahoo Finance)
Now, I’m not saying Dogecoin is worth what Bitcoin is. I’m not even saying it's worth half or a third of Bitcoin. Who really knows? No one does. You certainly cannot say for certain that one is better than another. One is more “established” and has more name recognition. What I am saying is this: if Dogecoin goes to $1, it will have a market cap of just over $85 billion. Even at Bitcoin’s current market cap, that’s just over 1/10 of its value. And that isn’t even pricing in more appreciation of Bitcoin’s value over time. This means I see tons of room for Dogecoin to run. (I know some will mention dilution via minting of new coins, but that’s another discussion and not entirely relevant to the points I am trying to make in this piece.)
Could Dogecoin match Bitcoin? That sounds absurd, but let’s look just for fun: if Dogecoin were to have the same market cap as Bitcoin, that means it would have a current price of $8.55. So, what am I saying here? You must know the range of possibilities (within reason, if that even exists anymore) before you start thinking about price targets. To say Dogecoin is going to $100 is just absurd; things need to be put in the proper context.
Why Dogecoin?
Using relative valuation, I believe you could make a case for any Crypto. Will they all run to Bitcoin’s level? Of course not. The last question is why Dogecoin? This is the most important one that we have to answer before deciding on buying Dogecoin. The answer is simple: hype and name recognition. If I look at the most valuable cryptocurrencies by market cap, Dogecoin is number 12. I have taken an informal survey of probably 100 people over the last two weeks. I showed them the top 15 Cryptocurrencies by market cap to see which they were familiar with: Stellar, Binance Coin, Cardano, Polkadot, XRP . . . almost all of these were completely unheard of. But, somehow, they have valuations of 2-3 times Dogecoin.
Dogecoin has a few things going for it. First, hype. Elon Musk and many other prominent celebrities are pilling in. Mark Cuban has said he’d buy it over a lottery ticket. That alone can help aid a very quick lift off. Second, the name Dogecoin is very easy to remember and a trendy thing. What the heck is Cardano anyway? XRP? I mistakenly called it XPR before I edited this piece. And if you are still hung up on the practical use of Dogecoin or other Cryptos, you are missing the point of this piece entirely. Look at the story behind Bitcoin. An anonymous person online created a decentralized platform for money movement or something like that. What? How in the world did that idea ever take traction? It’s just like people online arguing over which Penny Stock is the next big thing. Neither person is right, but the perception is really all that matters.
Third, stimulus checks will be hitting within weeks or months. This naturally promotes price inflation when people have more dollars chasing few goods. People will inevitably pile into whatever they think is the next great thing. Dogecoin has momentum right now. And this brings me to number four.
Fourth, and perhaps most importantly, FOMO is very powerful right now. There are people all over the world that know people who have won big money in this bubble. Penny stocks, GameStop, Bitcoin, and many others that you can name. How many people do you personally know that have won big in the lottery? Probably none. This is a unique time in history. People have won big in this market and are looking for the next thing.
Dogecoin is something that could pick up steam quickly. It could blow up overnight. It may not, and that is the risk you take. At the end of the day, it’s just money that you can always make more of. Life-changing money is worth the risk when you find the right risk-reward ratio.
Do your due diligence, but also think ahead to a scenario that you could imagine. Would you be that surprised if Dogecoin reached $1? And if it did, would you be surprised if it started running towards multiple dollars? $1 is a psychological number that typically leads to a further breakout. The current market cap suggests this is all very possible. Now imagine getting in at four or five cents.
Disclosure: Long Dogecoin with Diamond Hands. No positions in any other things mentioned. -BJ

This is my follow up post:
Who am I and what am I doing?
My name is Cam. I’m 20 years old. I’ve been playing competitive magic and collecting for the last 10 years. Magic is a large source of my income, as I buy//sell constantly and I have hit consistently on “specs” and investments. I’m writing this because I’m sick of hearing//seeing people who have no idea what they're talking about, who haven’t actually made a significant amount of money doing it, be the standard of good information within this community. You don’t have to like me. You don’t have to read or listen to me, but I felt as though it would be beneficial to someone out there. I currently own tens of thousands of dollars in cards, and I recently just bought myself a brand new Nissan Rogue from being smart with mtg finance. I figured the best way to do this would be for me to cover one topic at a time, rather than vomiting everything all at once. That way I can judge what I got right, what I got wrong, and I’ll be able to listen to what people want to hear and move forward accordingly. The first topic I figured I’d cover is “Specs”. I will also gladly respond to those with questions, or go into more detail/give examples. I figured for now, the most basic forum of the points I’m trying to get across would be most successful, but I could write pages upon pages of material regarding this.
Speculations
The best speculations are obvious. They’re not hoarding squirrel cards when they print a new squirrel lord. They’re buying and trading for Gilded Lotus’s when Dominaria hits it’s floor, waiting 2 years and making double your money. They’re not exciting, they’re not guess work, they’re buying good, played cards, when they’re low. It sounds simple, yet people don’t do this.
“How do I identify these cards?”
If you’re like me, which maybe you are, maybe you’re not, you don’t play kitchen top magic. I’ve never enjoyed edh, or other casual formats. I have always been a competitive player. I enjoy winning. What I came to realize when first stepping into magic finance is that people like me are the minorities. We are the outliers. The majority of people who play this game play for fun with their friends, or play weekly at their local shop, game club in school, etc. They don’t travel to events or grind PTQs online. As such, the biggest money maker in this game are the cards those people value. Once I came to that realization, everything got much easier. I started to pay attention to the edh table at the back of my shop, and I started to listen to what and how those players talked about magic. Now how do you identify those cards? If you are a casual player yourself, this may be easier for you, because chances are if you deem a card “good”, there are thousands of other players who think like you. For me, there's a few major categories when trying to identify cards, and I will lay them out for you. Before I do, I need to mention that with my speculations, they are not quick flips. Like I said in the beginning, I’m not trying to gamble on a hot card that I think will make me money in the next 2 weeks. I want to play the 1 to 3 year game. This is ultimately the best way to make money off of individual cards. Anyways, here are some of the key categories:

• Price

Obviously price is an important category when trying to make money off of anything. What’s important to note here however, is that casual players have a price cap. Edh players, and those who play kitchen table magic for fun, are not going to spend 30 dollars regularly on a card. They’re just not. Will they spend 5? 7? Maybe even 10? Sure. The 2-5 dollar price range is the sweet spot when targeting specs, with the expectation that a 2 dollar card, will become a 4 dollar card, and a 5 dollar card, will become a 10 dollar card. It’s important to realize when a card is out of that sweet spot, and how much a card has to grow left realistically.

• Uniqueness

This is important because of the price gap I mentioned in the previous section. Causal players do not like spending a lot of money on single cards. Cards that are not unique, they will find substitutions for. When you look at the super expensive edh and casual cards, they are cards that A. either see play elsewhere, or B. can’t be substituted by another card. For example of B, look at Smothering Tithe.

• Appeal

Casual players and newer players especially like cards that are “cool”. They like cards that wow their friends or have some factor about them that is aesthetically pleasing. This is why Gigantosaurus, despite being unplayable in every situation ever, will never go below a dollar. It’s why every Nicol Bolas ever will be worth something. There are hundreds of cards like that out there, that will forever be safe havens for your money, and will forever sell. It’s important to identify these sorts of cards within the floor of each set, because these are some of the types of cards that will see the most growth the next 2-4 years after print. These are the kinds of cards that casual players WILL put money into. To them these sorts of cards are collection corner stones, and big ticket items.

• Staples

Cards that will be in the format and decks for a long time or forever. Mana rocks, like Gilded Lotus, or Chromatic Lantern for example. Both of those cards were printed in a standard set in recent times and those should’ve been some of the easiest cards to identify when they were 2-3 dollars respectively as money makers. They print cards like them consistently that over time will follow the same price graph as those cards.

• Can you get out?

Lastly, but most importantly, you need to be able to make money off your cards. A lot of people like to say they have x dollars in cards. However cards are worth nothing until you turn them into cash. Whether that is on Facebook, Ebay, Tcgplayer, or Buylists, it doesn’t matter. You need an outlet to get rid of your cards, and the cards you spec on you need buyers for. This is why quick flips are not successful, and why you can't usually make more than 100 bucks on them. Buying 100 copies of a zombie card because they printed a new zombie lord only to sell to 10 people who want to build a zombie deck, and another 5 people doing what you’re doing, isn’t going to make you money. It’s going to leave you with 85 copies of that new zombie card, which you’ll be forced to hold onto, or sell to a buylist for less than you paid for. The same is true for a lot of speciality cards. It’s why Foreign cards on Tcgplayer are often much much cheaper than English copies. People buying cards don’t want them, and if that card ever goes anywhere in price, it's going to be really hard for you to get out of 100 Chinese copies of it. There just isn’t that large of a market share to sell to. Foils nowaday also follow this. Normal foils just aren't worth much, because those who want foils, want the extended art or alternate art versions instead. The only reason you buy foils is to bling out your deck so to speak, and if you're going to do that, you’re going to buy the most blinged versions. If you’re not buying those, you probably don’t want foils, so this leaves the basic set foils a lot of times selling for less than the non foil set versions.
How much do I buy of a certain card?
There’s a lot of questions you need to ask yourself when buying to spec. The first is how much money can you realistically afford to spend. I will say this here and I will say it seriously. Do not invest in magic if you can’t afford to. The great thing about magic compared to other hobbies, is that it’s incredibly liquid, meaning you can get out at any time and expect somewhat close values to what your cards are worth. That being said, it doesn’t make it smart to choose to put your money there, as opposed to bills, or paying off loans etc. Take care of that first, and if you want to put extra money into this hobby, by all means go for it. The next question is what are your goals? Do you just want to make the game more affordable, or are you trying to just purely make money? These are the questions you need to ask yourself before you act on buying. Just like you don’t go into a gym and start picking up random weights and doing random exercises, the same is true when buying cards. If you’re buying to make money, personally I buy as much as I can. That doesn’t mean every dollar in my bank account, and it doesn’t mean buying anything. Every card I spend money on, I take time with the decision, and I have confidence in. I spend money I’ve made from other successful cards, and put it back into cards I believe will be successful in the future. This is the best way to create growth from my experience. If you’re just trying to make your hobby cheaper, maybe this just means knowing when to buy the cards you want, or what you should be trading cards you don’t want for in order to maximize those cards values at some point in the future to get cards you do want. Each person is going to be different, and the biggest thing is to ask yourself what you’re doing reading this, and what you hope to get out of this for yourself.
Thanks for reading, I’d love to talk, and hear whether or not you want more of this kind of material. Should I go deeper into stuff, and is there anything specific you want me to talk about next post? Maybe anything else I missed here, etc. Like I said, I could write for hours about any of this stuff, as it’s how I have made most of my money as a 20 year old college student. Thanks

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Its a bit lengthy and I tried to condense it as much as I can. So take everything at a high level as each subject is has a lot more depth but fundamentally if you distill it down its just taking simple things and applying your experience using them to add nuance and better deploy them.
There are exceptions to everything that you will learn with experience or have already learned. If you know something extra or something to add to it to implement it better or more accurately. Then great! However, my intention of this post is just a high level overview. Trading can be far too nuanced to go into in this post and would take forever to type up every exception (not to mention the traders individual personality). If you take the general information as a starting point, hopefully you will learn the edge cases long the way and learn how to use the more effectively if you end up using them. I apologize in advice for any errors or typos.
Introduction After reflecting on my fun (cough) trading journey that was more akin to rolling around on broken glass and wondering if brown glass will help me predict market direction better than green glass. Buying a $100 indicator at 2 am when I was acting a fool, looking at it and going at and going "This is a piece of lagging crap, I miss out on a large part of the fundamental move and never using it for even one trade". All while struggling with massive over trading and bad habits because I would get bored watching a single well placed trade on fold for the day. Also, I wanted to get rich quick.
On top all of that I had a terminal Stage 4 case of FOMO on every time the price would move up and then down then back up. Just think about all those extra pips I could have trading both directions as it moves across the chart! I can just sell right when it goes down, then buy right before it goes up again. Its so easy right? Well, turns out it was not as easy as I thought and I lost a fair chunk of change and hit my head against the wall a lot until it clicked. Which is how I came up with a mixed bag of things that I now call "Trade the Trade" which helped support how I wanted to trade so I can still trade intra day price action like a rabid money without throwing away all my bananas.
Why Make This Post? - Core Topic of Discussion I wish to share a concept I came up with that helped me become a reliable trader. Support the weakness of how I like to trade. Also, explaining what I do helps reinforce my understanding of the information I share as I have to put words to it and not just use internalized processes. I came up with a method that helped me get my head straight when trading intra day.
I call it "Trade the Trade" as I am making mini trades inside of a trade setup I make from analysis on a higher timeframe that would take multiple days to unfold or longer. I will share information, principles, techniques I used and learned from others I talked to on the internet (mixed bag of folks from armatures to professionals, and random internet people) that helped me form a trading style that worked for me. Even people who are not good at trading can say something that might make it click in your head so I would absorbed all the information I could get.I will share the details of how I approach the methodology and the tools in my trading belt that I picked up by filtering through many tools, indicators strategies and witchcraft. Hopefully you read something that ends up helping you be a better trader. I learned a lot from people who make community posts so I wanted to give back now that I got my ducks in a row.
General Trading Advice If your struggling finding your own trading style, fixing weakness's in it, getting started, being reliably profitable or have no framework to build yourself higher with, hopefully you can use the below advice to help provide some direction or clarity to moving forward to be a better trader.

1. KEEP IT SIMPLE. Do not throw a million things on your chart from the get go or over analyzing what the market is doing while trying to learn the basics. Tons of stuff on your chart can actually slow your learning by distracting your focus on all your bells and whistles and not the price action.
2. PRICE ACTION. Learn how to read price action. Not just the common formations, but larger groups of bars that form the market structure. Those formations carry more weight the higher the time frame they form on. If struggle to understand what is going on or what your looking at, move to a higher time frame.
3. INDICATORS. If you do use them you should try to understand how every indicator you use calculates its values. Many indicators are lagging indicators, understanding how it calculates the values can help you learn how to identify the market structure before the indicator would trigger a signal . This will help you understand why the signal is a lagged signal. If you understand that you can easily learn to look at the price action right before the signal and learn to watch for that price action on top of it almost trigging a signal so you can get in at a better position and assume less downside risk. I recommend using no more than 1-2 indicators for simplicity, but your free to use as many as you think you think you need or works for your strategy/trading style.
4. PSYCOLOGY. First, FOMO is real, don't feed the beast. When you trade you should always have an entry and exit. If you miss your entry do not chase it, wait for a new entry. At its core trading is gambling and your looking for an edge against the house (the other market participants). With that in mind, treat as such. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. If you are afraid to lose it will negatively effect your trade decisions. Finally, be honest with your self and bad trading happens. No one is going to play trade cop and keep you in line, that's your job.
5. TRADE DECISION MARKING: Before you enter any trade you should have an entry and exit area. As you learn price action you will get better entries and better exits. Use a larger zone and stop loss at the start while learning. Then you can tighten it up as you gain experience. If you do not have a area you wish to exit, or you are entering because "the markets looking like its gonna go up". Do not enter the trade. Have a reason for everything you do, if you cannot logically explain why then you probably should not be doing it.
6. ROBOTS/ALGOS: Loved by some, hated by many who lost it all to one, and surrounded by scams on the internet. If you make your own, find a legit one that works and paid for it or lost it all on a crappy one, more power to ya. I do not use robots because I do not like having a robot in control of my money. There is too many edge cases for me to be ok with it.However, the best piece of advice about algos was that the guy had a algo/robot for each market condition (trending/ranging) and would make personalized versions of each for currency pairs as each one has its own personality and can make the same type of movement along side another currency pair but the price action can look way different or the move can be lagged or leading. So whenever he does his own analysis and he sees a trend, he turns the trend trading robot on. If the trend stops, and it starts to range he turns the range trading robot on. He uses robots to trade the market types that he is bad at trading. For example, I suck at trend trading because I just suck at sitting on my hands and letting my trade do its thing.

Trade the Trade - The Methodology

Base Principles These are the base principles I use behind "Trade the Trade". Its called that because you are technically trading inside your larger high time frame trade as it hopefully goes as you have analyzed with the trade setup. It allows you to scratch that intraday trading itch, while not being blind to the bigger market at play. It can help make sense of why the price respects, rejects or flat out ignores support/resistance/pivots.

1. Trade Setup: Find a trade setup using high level time frames (daily, 4hr, or 1hr time frames). The trade setup will be used as a base for starting to figure out a bias for the markets direction for that day.
2. Indicator Data: Check any indicators you use (I use Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index) for any useful information on higher timeframes.
3. Support Resistance: See if any support/resistance/pivot points are in currently being tested/resisted by the price. Also check for any that are within reach so they might become in play through out the day throughout the day (which can influence your bias at least until the price reaches it if it was already moving that direction from previous days/weeks price action).
4. Currency Strength/Weakness: I use the TradeVision currency strength/weakness dashboard to see if the strength/weakness supports the narrative of my trade and as an early indicator when to keep a closer eye for signs of the price reversing.Without the tool, the same concept can be someone accomplished with fundamentals and checking for higher level trends and checking cross currency pairs for trends as well to indicate strength/weakness, ranging (and where it is in that range) or try to get some general bias from a higher level chart that may help you out. However, it wont help you intra day unless your monitoring the currency's index or a bunch of charts related to the currency.
5. Watch For Trading Opportunities: Personally I make a mental short list and alerts on TradingView of currency pairs that are close to key levels and so I get a notification if it reaches there so I can check it out. I am not against trading both directions, I just try to trade my bias before the market tries to commit to a direction. Then if I get out of that trade I will scalp against the trend of the day and hold trades longer that are with it.Then when you see a opportunity assume the directional bias you made up earlier (unless the market solidly confirms with price action the direction while waiting for an entry) by trying to look for additional confirmation via indicators, price action on support/resistances etc on the low level time frame or higher level ones like hourly/4hr as the day goes on when the price reaches key areas or makes new market structures to get a good spot to enter a trade in the direction of your bias.Then enter your trade and use the market structures to determine how much of a stop you need. Once your in the trade just monitor it and watch the price action/indicators/tools you use to see if its at risk of going against you. If you really believe the market wont reach your TP and looks like its going to turn against you, then close the trade. Don't just hold on to it for principle and let it draw down on principle or the hope it does not hit your stop loss.
6. Trade Duration Hold your trades as long or little as you want that fits your personality and trading style/trade analysis. Personally I do not hold trades past the end of the day (I do in some cases when a strong trend folds) and I do not hold trades over the weekends. My TP targets are always places I think it can reach within the day. Typically I try to be flat before I sleep and trade intra day price movements only. Just depends on the higher level outlook, I have to get in at really good prices for me to want to hold a trade and it has to be going strong. Then I will set a slightly aggressive stop on it before I leave. I do know several people that swing trade and hold trades for a long period of time. That is just not a trading style that works for me.

Enhance Your Success Rate Below is information I picked up over the years that helped me enhance my success rate with not only guessing intra day market bias (even if it has not broken into the trend for the day yet (aka pre London open when the end of Asia likes to act funny sometimes), but also with trading price action intra day.
People always say "When you enter a trade have an entry and exits. I am of the belief that most people do not have problem with the entry, its the exit. They either hold too long, or don't hold long enough. With the below tools, drawings, or instruments, hopefully you can increase your individual probability of a successful trade.
**P.S.*\* Your mileage will vary depending on your ability to correctly draw, implement and interpret the below items. They take time and practice to implement with a high degree of proficiency. If you have any questions about how to do that with anything listed, comment below and I will reply as I can. I don't want to answer the same question a million times in a pm.
Tools and Methods Used This is just a high level overview of what I use. Each one of the actions I could go way more in-depth on but I would be here for a week typing something up of I did that. So take the information as a base level understanding of how I use the method or tool. There is always nuance and edge cases that you learn from experience.

• Fundamentals
  • I keep a general high level Macro outlook for currencies. I dont get too deep into Fundamentals and just keep an eye out for news. If I am already in a trade I will hold it if its far enough away from my entry. However, I wont enter right before/during news as it can invalidate your setup.
• Price Action
  • I started with the basics of learning the standard price action formations/patterns and candles. You can find tons of free info on that online, google is your friend. Then I stared at charts and said "why did the price do that or do this etc" then after a while I started to understand what's happening without having to think about it and I can see the market structure without having to look as closely as I did in the past.
  • After many many hours of staring at 5 min charts for 15 hours a day 5 days a week I learned how to look at 5 min charts and be like "Oh that's a hammer on the 15 min etc. If you keep track of time you can do the same for hourly candles as well and you will start to see market structure naturally. However I typically trade in a two chart panel window so I have a 15 min and 5 min chart up when trading intra day so I dont have to think too hard about it.
• Support/Resistance Lines
  • Draw support resistance lines on Daily/4hr timeframes. I prefer to use body of the candle instead of the wick for support/resistance.
  • You can find support/resistance liquidity levels through out the day as well and trade those if the price retraces back through levels its already been through that same day.
  • It would be a bit length to explain exactly the best place to draw them. If your unsure there is plenty of free resources on the internet. Just try to use your head and look for price levels where the price was "Supported" or it "Resisted" that price level then slap a line on it. Draw as few or as many lines as you feel helps you and your style. I tend to lean on the side of fewer. I typically do about 6 lines main support/resistances (3 of each).
• Fibonacci Extensions
  • Draw two Fibonacci Extensions. One on the daily timeframe, and then one on the 4hr time frame. Then you can trade the Fibonacci levels and use them for TP targets or entry zones if price action respects the level. Also you can use it along with support/resistance and pivots if they happen to line up or are very close.
  • I cannot really figure out how to put it into words how to draw a Fib if you dont know how. I will have to make a picture to demonstrate it. If your interested post below and I will draw one up and post a link. Probably the easiest way to understand. Just keep in mind the Fib you draw on the 4hr time frame will be inside the daily timeframe one.
• Currency Strength/Weakness
  • The TradeVision2020 dashboard that I use just helps me keep a tab on the current market post plus any swing strength/momentum a currency might have on higher time frames. Helps me look for shifts in the market or confirmation that the bias it already has in momentum is continuing. I have found that often currencies when they get really/weak or strong might continue for several days or even longer like a full week or more. We recently had what felt like 1 week or so of flat out Yen weakness which was making some things wonky. All it does is allow me to look at the dashboard instead of a million other charts.
• Indicators
  • I use two that work well for my intra day style. The Stochastic RSI is just like a RSI but its faster. The second is the Relative Vigor Index which I use to detect swings in momentum and divergences in bullish/bearish momentum. I have used many others in the past, but as I have grown and got better as a trader I have found making my analysis simpler has improved my trading.I dont like the whole idea of have 43 different indicators on 32 different time frames light up a dashboard to be green for me to enter a trade. With how I do it now, I have a clear understanding of what I expect to happen and why. That way when it does happen I understand the move and dont get freaked out if the market moves funny after I am in the trade.

Conclusion
I use the above tools/indicators/resources/philosophy's to trade intra day price action that sometimes ends up as noise in the grand scheme of the markets movement.use that method until the price action for the day proves the bias assumption wrong. Also you can couple that with things like Stoch RSI + Relative Vigor Index to find divergences which can increase the probability of your targeted guesses.
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Trade Example from Yesterday This is an example of a trade I took today and why I took it. I used the following core areas to make my trade decision.

• Fundamental Bias: I already had a bullish fundamental outlook on EUUSD with expecting the markets to price in future similes due a higher an higher chance of Biden winning on paper as the election closed in and a "Blue wave" coming which would lead to a weaker dollar. Also, the Euro Zone is getting hammered with COVID pretty hard plus Brexit drama so I had a strong Euro bias.NOTE: As frame of reference, all the other pairs I trade I traded as if they were ranging and trade a range. Markets are messed up right now.
• Currency Strength/Weakness: I use a tool that gives me a currency strength/weakness dashboard called TradeVision2020. Helps me track individual currency strength/weakness intra day. Took me about a month to get used to it, but helps me keep track of intra day strength/weakness that can add a bias to trade direction as the day unfolds. Like "Will this run have a 2nd or 3rd push higher" or "I should look to TP at the first sign of weakness in the push" type bias data. You still got to use your brain and figure out the best decision. It wont make choices for you, its only a guide.NOTE: I am not trying to adverse the tool (if providing the code is against sub rules let me know), its just a tool I use every day that helps me with directional bias calls. I am sharing the coupon code that was given to me when I found out about the tool in the TradingView forex chatroom and the guy gave me the code to use when I signed up. I dont want someone to read the name and want to try it out then overpay for no reason. The coupon will give you 40% off. Coupon Code: 3F7A0T5T
• Higher Timeframe Analysis: Detected some early signs of Bearish Divergence on the 1hr chart using a on a higher time frame using a Stochastic RSI. Then I saw more confirmation on 5 min charts using Relative Vigor Index to help time my entry mid session.
• Pivot Points: I treat pivot points like support/resistance and trade them as such using price action to give me some idea how its being treated by the market. Pretty straight forward.

It may seem like a lot of stuff to process on the fly while trying to figure out live price action but, for the fundamental bias for a pair should already baked in your mindset for any currency pair you trade. For the currency strength/weakness I stare at the dashboard 12-15 hours a day so I am always trying to keep a pulse on what's going or shifts so that's not really a factor when I want to enter as I would not look to enter if I felt the market was shifting against me. Then the higher timeframe analysis had already happened when I woke up, so it was a game of "Stare at the 5 min chart until the price does something interesting"
Trade Example: Today , I went long EUUSD long bias when I first looked at the chart after waking up around 9-10pm Eastern. Fortunately, the first large drop had already happened so I had a easy baseline price movement to work with. I then used tool for currency strength/weakness monitoring, Pivot Points, and bearish divergence detected using Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index.
I first noticed Bearish Divergence on the 1hr time frame using the Stochastic RSI and got confirmation intra day on the 5 min time frame with the Relative Vigor Index. I ended up buying the second mini dip around midnight Eastern because it was already dancing along the pivot point that the price had been dancing along since the big drop below the pivot point and dipped below it and then shortly closed back above it. I put a stop loss below the first large dip. With a TP goal of the middle point pivot line
Then I waited for confirmation or invalidation of my trade. I ended up getting confirmation with Bearish Divergence from the second large dip so I tightened up my stop to below that smaller drip and waited for the London open. Not only was it not a lower low, I could see the divergence with the Relative Vigor Index.
It then ran into London and kept going with tons of momentum. Blew past my TP target so I let it run to see where the momentum stopped. Ended up TP'ing at the Pivot Point support/resistance above the middle pivot line.
Random Note: The Asian session has its own unique price action characteristics that happen regularly enough that you can easily trade them when they happen with high degrees of success. It takes time to learn them all and confidently trade them as its happening. If you trade Asia you should learn to recognize them as they can fake you out if you do not understand what's going on.
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TL;DR At the end of the day there is no magic solution that just works. You have to find out what works for you and then what people say works for them. Test it out and see if it works for you or if you can adapt it to work for you. If it does not work or your just not interested then ignore it.
At the end of the day, you have to use your brain to make correct trading decisions. Blindly following indicators may work sometimes in certain market conditions, but trading with information you don't understand can burn you just as easily as help you. Its like playing with fire. So, get out there and grind it out. It will either click or it wont. Not everyone has the mindset or is capable of changing to be a successful trader. Trading is gambling, you do all this work to get a edge on the house. Trading without the edge or an edge you understand how to use will only leave your broker happy in the end.

Not Financial Advice (NFA)
Warning: Wall of Text. If you hate reading just skim through the bolded/italicized
Ever since I publicized my findings on DKNG, the stock has underperformed & probably has fucked a lot of people here, especially given the overly bullish stance back in June. Unless you took my advice & got into Puts then, congrats, welcome to tendie town. For the ADHD retards, here’s what the next wall of text is going to summarize: I believe at the current price of ~$30, the stock is oversold.
A tech-focused, high-growth Company that has made sports betting easy to understand with an aesthetically pleasing interface similar to how Robinhood has neatly laid out stock market gimmicks so even high-schoolers can make sense of it I believe, is underpriced at these levels.
Let’s get into some details as to why the stock has underperformed:
First off, the news slate revolving sports with the rumored delay/cancellation of the MLB season & the NFL watching from the sidelines is in my view, just a part of why the stock has underperformed. We’ll revisit this later in this post, but I want to focus on the drivers of the stock’s recent underperformance, & why these factors are now in the rearview mirror.
Part I – The Past Has Passed – SPAC-related Equity Dilution
History lesson first: DKNG went public via a SPAC merger, which has exploded in popularity recently. Anyone serious about analyzing stocks going forward needs to do their homework on this, Google is your friend.
A feature of most SPAC merger to public listings that creates a headwind to near-term share prices are embedded equity dilution events, usually in the form of earn-outs (stock bonuses to execs, the SPAC sponsor) & conversion of Warrants.
On 5/24, the earn-outs were triggered, adding 6m shares to the share count.
On 6/26, 16.3m warrants converted to DKNG, netting them ~$188m of cash.
Stepping back a little, in addition to the above, on 6/18 DKNG launched a follow-on equity offering of 16M shares @ $40/Share [1], receiving $621M in proceeds.
The last part is tricky to understand from a dilution perspective. To simplify, historically it’s almost a coin toss whether a Company’s shares outperform on the onset of an equity offering. While issuing shares does dilute the existing shareholder base, it theoretically shouldn’t, if the proceeds from the offering are earmarked for investments/projects that yield outsized returns. This is the reality for the long term, theory for the short-term. For the short-term, the ‘reality’ isn’t that the proceeds will be used for investments/projects that yield outsized returns, it is more about how convincing management is to investors that the investments they intend to pursue with the proceeds will outweigh the dilutive effects of issuing incremental shares. That’s a mouthful, but hopefully you get what I’m trying to convey.
All of this stuff put together – the Company has increased its share count by ~39M, but now has a whopping ~$1.4Bn of cash [2]. More on this in the next section.
Part II – MLB News Should Not Fucking Matter & DKNG Is Positioned As the Leading Online/Mobile Sports Platform
DKNG should not be so tied to MLB news or any of this shit as the ongoing success of the NBA/NHL season + Soccer in Europe has effectively created a blueprint on how to regulate player behavior so that they maintain professionalism amidst the pandemic. I’m going out on a whim here, but I truly think the MLB threatening a cancellation of the season is pure posturing to get these fuckers to behave appropriately. Maybe a ‘bubble’ is what it takes to get these players to focus on their jobs instead of going out & contracting COVID, but I argue that isn’t necessarily required given Soccer in Europe. So there’s already a proven path here without the need for a bubble in Soccer, so MLB/NFL should be fine, and execs need to study how they got it done in Europe. Okay, back to some facts.
Anecdotally, I’ve kept in touch with a handful of sports bookies from California to New York & even internationally about what they’re seeing – all of them say that since the NBA season started on 7/30 & since Soccer (especially the Premier League) resumed in June, along with other leagues like La Liga & Serie A, they’ve seen massive increases in betting.
These numbers are also showing up in the official data [3]:

• Average % increase in sports betting handle from April 2020 to June 2020 (handle is the total $ wagered in sports bets) from the states that reported up to June 2020 (NJ, PA, MS, RI, WV, IA, IN, NH) of +258%!
  
  • Note: NV is left out due to the site I sourced showing a weirdly negative number – so I dug into the official filings & show specifically, Sports Mobile betting growth from June since April has growing by at least +73% [4]

REMEMBER: This is for June only! No NBA, No NHL, No MLB, just Soccer, Golf, NASCAR & UFC.
The data clearly shows that there was a ton of pent-up sports betting demand, which leads one Wall St. analyst to think that betting on the NBA/NHL could ABSORB the MLB’s sports betting handle (handle = total $ size of sports bet) [5]. Remember, the MLB season is still ongoing, with games being played. The entire focus is on the Miami Marlins & St. Louis Cardinals. Fucking retards.
Additionally, I want to remind everyone that DraftKings.com is the #1 Fantasy sports website in the U.S. [6]. Also, since April 2020 site visitations are up +86% [7] & Google Search Trends for “Draft Kings” is up ~3x compared to PRE-COVID levels [8]. What does this mean? They are piquing more people’s curiosity than prior to COVID/ongoing slate of sports.
This is important because remember that ~$1.4Bn chest full of cash I mentioned DKNG had assembled earlier? Well, that money is being put to work & results are already coming in, which is exactly what DKNG intended to do with it.
Part III – Legalization of Sports Betting in the U.S.
I could write a fucking bible on this topic alone, but for now we’ll stick to some basics. Due to COVID, it’s easy to understand that each State’s financial situation is clearly in shit. Because of this, you better believe that these guys are going to start taking a hard look at how they can extract additional tax revenues, & what’s one of the easiest ways to do this? Legalization & taxation of gambling.
The big players: CA, TX, FL & NY. First, CA pushing its legislation out to 2023 was fucked up, but here’s a twist I want to add to this: Anything that has to do with gambling in CA you better believe is lobbied against by not just the Tribal casino owners in CA, but by the deep pockets of Las Vegas money. Similar thing can be said for FL, but let’s take a look at some actions by LV/nationwide gambling companies that are starting to align financial incentives with guys like DKNG.

• MGM / GVC Holdings JV in BetMGM - $450m total invested
• PENN invests $163m into BS Sports
• Caesars has a 20% stake in William Hill plus partnership deals with The Stars Group (TSG) & our winner DKNG for operating its sports books

So it’s safe to say going forward, nationwide legalization of sports betting will reap rewards for everyone involved, & no longer be something LV money is completely focused on safeguarding.
Let’s also not forget that DKNG didn’t become the Company they are today because of their fancy app, but because their management team has a HISTORY of navigating the U.S.’s legal framework to get what they want out of it.

• The Crown Jewel – The Internet Gambling Prohibition & Enforcement Act: I said it in a previous post, but I want to emphasize that them getting Fantasy Sports to be labeled a ‘game of skill’ by FEDERAL Law as opposed to gambling is just something for the history books. Fucking genius shit. When this happened I bet every casino from LV to every Indian Tribe that has one was against it, yet DKNG & other DFS providers won.
• There’s more, but more recently: Getting into IL:
  
  • In IL, there’s an 18-month ‘penalty box’ for Companies that offer DFS to offer sports betting. Our guys at DKNG created a workaround to this situation with their partnership with Casino Queen [9]. DKNG being savvy again.

These guys are at the cutting edge of creating legal frameworks to successfully launch their products & now with more of their ‘competitors’ financially aligned with them, combined with financial deterioration of State budgets, we should see an overweighting of good news vs. bad on the legal front.
Final Part – Share Price Targets
Under-fucking priced at anything below $42.50
Near-term catalysts:
8/14: DKNG files 2Q’20 results, might be shitty, but you can bet that the Earnings Call is going to contain rhetoric on how massive the uptick in sports betting has been since late June/July.
Sometime from now until November: NY releases ‘study’ by Spectrum Gaming on online/mobile sports betting.
8/20 – 9/7: PGA Championship for FedEx Cup Title
9/5 – KY Derby
9/10: NFL KickOff Game
9/17: PGA U.S. Open Start Date
Month of October: NBA/NHL Playoffs
10/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in TN
11/1: Estimated launch of online sports betting in VA
[1] https://draftkings.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/draftkings-announces-proposed-public-offering-class-common-stock
[2] Wall St. Research – DKNG on 6/29/20
[3] https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/
[4] https://gaming.nv.gov/modules/showdocument.aspx?documentid=16984; Note: Nevada did not break out April/May figures but from the Revenue difference of 3 month ended June 30 of 4,950 vs. month of June of 2,297 for a total difference of 2,653 spread evenly over April/May for a base case April estimate of 1,327.
[5] Wall St. Research - 7/27/20
[6] https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/category/sports/fantasy-sports/
[7] https://www.similarweb.com/website/draftkings.com/#overview
[8] https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=draft%20kings Feb 23-29, 2020 vs. Current Aug 2 – Aug 8, 2020
[9] https://www.legalsportsreport.com/42314/draftkings-illinois-sports-betting-market-access/

So, for those of you who are familiar with REALLY black hat affiliate marketing this wouldn't be a huge surprise, but still.
Basically, i think i found the ultimate way to promote online casinos as an affiliate and make huge amounts of money with it, and basically this is by turning lots of people into temporary (or not so temporary) gambling addicts.
Is this immoral? I'm a diagnosed sociopath and i couldn't care less, we're all adults and we're all responsible for our decisions. Is this illegal? No.
Basically, let's first analyze what a gambling addict is and HOW HE THINKS:
The key factor that distinguishes a gambling addict from an enthusiast is that the addict genuinely thinks he can beat the game, he thinks he knows what the next card coming out the deck is going to be, he thinks he knows that the next roll of the slot machine is going to be the one etc.
So, how do you turn random people into gamblers? You PROVE THEM you found an actual method to actually beat the game, and you prove it in an incontestable way just so that nobody can prove you wrong. This is going to cost you some money btw, let's say 500 bucks, but you'll make a lot more in a day so...
Basically, here's what you do:
1) You create a fake Baypal balance, just log into your Baypal account and select the values, right click, then "inspect". Now you can edit whatever you want and create a fake balance showing fake payments from whatever company you want (name of the casino, will explain later, but you have to put money in the casino, lose some, and then get it back on Baypal so that you know the exact name that will appear when you receive payments). This would only be illegal only if you were selling the method, but you're going to give it away for free (because it's not a method) so no worries.
2) Once you have the fake Baypal set up you record the screen and start talking, say stuff like "Hey everyone i'm recording this video to show you this INSANE method i just found to make money online, i wouldn't believe this because they told me it was a method to make a lot of money easily, but i tried it and wow, this is crazy. BLA BLA BLA. I'm a MATH graduate and i couldn't get a job anywhere, let alone a well paid job. BLA BLA BLA."
3) You then start talking about the money you made while moving your cursor ONTO the numbers so that people will see it's not a screenshot that you could've photoshopped because the page is interacting, because it's a real page, just edited. You basically just say stuff like “so you can see my balance now is 36k which is not all the money i made in this past month/month and a half, you can see i received these payments here, i was testing it first, made the first 221,64 bucks here, then 743,85 (remember not-so-perfect numbers have more impact), then i started doing this seriously and we got to 4k, 13k, and 28k today.”
4) You then keep talking for a bit about how crazy this is and it has changed your life, make sure the whole talk lasts about 3-4mins, then say “let’s not waste any time here, let me show you how this works”. And you stop recording. This will be the first part of the video just save it as it is, you’ll find out why later.
5) Open up whatever online casino you’re going to promote (will discuss on how to get your affiliate link later) on which you already loaded 50 euros or dollars, then start recording again, this will be the second part of the video, but people will not even notice the cut.
Say “this method works in online casinos. Okay i know what you’re thinking, don’t worry this is not one of those black-red tricks that don’t work, they’re scams and we all know that, this is a new method and works, as you saw on my Baypal, but i will show it to you live. Please remind most online casinos are not functional for this method because they will find a way to block you after you keep winning all the time, check the description for the link to this one that i’m using which is the very best. so, let’s go to the roulette section and pick french roulette. this is our workplace, i guess everyone knows how roulette works, but here we’re not trying to get lucky, we’re following a precise sequence which is this one *show sequence image at this point* (which is basically Red Black Red Red Black Black in cycles) and i’ll put a link for this too. Here’s how it works:”
So, you have to apply this cycle while placing your bets, this cycle actually kinda works, but it just makes your chances of winning slightly above 50%, it’s nothing special, but looks like it. What you do is you keep betting the colors of the cycle all the time, while explaining what you’re doing with confidence, betting 0,10€ at a time, saying this is exactly where you started from. If you win you place the minimum bet again, if you lose you double up, if you lose again you double up again, but you keep following the sequence as a cycle.
Explain that this is the classic double-up, but it’s very different because YOU HAVE A PRECISE SEQUENCE THAT CAN’T BE REVERSE-FOLLOWED ALL THE TIME, and thus is 100% winning, all of this while proving it, while still suggesting the more you bet the more money you make.
This might go very wrong and you’d end up wasting 50€, if that happens (took me 6 trys, 300€, to get the right one) record this part of the video from scratch and load 50 more euros, as i said this will cost you money. When you get the right shot and get to let’s say 51€, point out that you just made 1€ in a couple mins, starting from 0,10, which is A LOT, point that out clearly.
6) If step 4 went correctly now say “so, i think you’ve figured out how this works but let me prove you this works for real, i’ll set a stopwatch, do it for a while speeding up the video so that you see what i’m doing, and i’ll be right back” then proceed to activate a stopwatch, go back to the casino page for a couple seconds and CUT the video.
7) Now, in post-production, you’ll take the part where you explained the method and use that video while speeding it up very quickly.
8) Go back to the casino, try until you win one bet so that it will show (that’s really hard to edit), then edit your balance to around 56€. Start the stopwatch again from 0:00, and go back to the casino page.
9) When 5 mins or so have passed start recording FROM THE CASINO PAGE, go the the stopwatch, stop it, and say “so that was 5 mins”. Go back to the casino page and show you are now at 56€, say “we made 5 more euros, and that was 5 minutes, let’s calculate how much WE WOULD’VE MADE if i kept going for an hour.” Pull out whatever calculator you want and divide euros by minutes (in this case 5 divided by 5, could be different in your case depending on what you decide to do) in this case it will show 1€ a minute, multiply x60 and say “guys, 60€ an hour, i know people are getting jobs for like 7€ an hour or less, let’s see how much that’d be if i kept doing it for 8 hours, that’s 480€. In a few days that will be a month of salary, and that’s with 0,10 bets, can you imagine what that would be if we made 1€ bets? this is insane.”
10) Pull out a table you previously created, showing bets, expected earnings and SAFETY RATIOS (totally made up).
Basically, 0,10 lost bets doubling up 9 times (which will look very very rare if step 4 went correctly) will require a 51,20€ balance for ABSOLUTE certainty, 25,20€ for VERY GOOD CERTAINTY and 6,40€ for GOOD CERTAINTY, create the rest of the board according to other bet options. Then on a side of the board show hourly and monthly potential earnings working 2 hours a day, so let’s say 60€ an hour as in hour example (point out that you usually go faster than what you did during the chronometer) and this will result in 3.600€ a month with 2 hours a day.
Explain the table and talk about the great earnings you can achieve with just 0,10 bets or 0,20 bets with just 2 hours a day, and then talk about the earnings you can achieve with higher bets, that REQUIRE CERTAINTY. Say “How do you get certainty, with a higher balance, here’s what we have, for 0,10 bets 6,40€ is good certainty, 25,20 is very good certainty and 51,20 is absolute certainty”. Suggest people to do 1€ bets (that require 512€ for absolute certainty) because they will be able to make 36k a month with just 2 hours IF THEY DO THIS SLOWLY, one hour if they do it faster. Keep discussing the huge earnings they can achieve, and point out you achieved a lot more and that the table underestimates it, as they saw in your Baypal. do some small talk for a while, the whole videos should be 15-20mins long.
11) End the whole video by saying “guys, i’m not joking this is for real, you’ve seen my Baypal, you’ve seen me do this right in front of you, it works, you’ll see for yourself, i’ll put the WEBSITE LINK (avoid saying “go play now” or phrases that directly encourage gambling) and the FREE DOWNLOAD link for the sequence in the description, i changed my life and got my dream life and you can do this too, dreams are not dreams anymore, they’re goals that you can achieve, bye!”
So, this is how you create the gambler-maker video that will turn random people into real gamblers. The cool thing is that the lowest “absolute certainty” balance is 51,20 but they can’t deposit 51,20 because they will be able to deposit 50, so if they comment the video saying they lost their money say the didn’t listen to you and needed 51,20. They will then refill their balance. Lots of people will do the same with the 512 balance. Delete upset comments if they don’t take any “advice” and place some “this changed my life” and “1000€ in 2 hours easiest money of my life” comments with fake profiles during the first week or two.
Most online casinos will pay you a 20% commission on deposits when you’re first starting out as an affiliate and will go to even 300% CPA on deposits, meaning a 500 deposit will make you a 1.500€ commission, or something like that depending on the one you choose.
The problem with them is that they will be very upset if they found out you’re promoting their casino this way (but will enjoy the money) so before you apply for their affiliate program here’s what you do:
You go to Blu3host and purchase 2 domains and hosting for each, about 70 bucks for each (will last 1 year) call one something like “makethatdr3ammoneynow(DOT)c0m” and the other one “casinofunreviews(DOT)c0m”.
Use Blu3host because it has integrated wordpress.
Log into casinofunrevi3ws(DOT)c0m and log into wordpress, go to plugins and search for “pretty links” install that plugin (the logo is a start with blue lines behind it like a comet) what this plugin does is it CLOAKS your link, not for people, but for the casino, this is to make sure the casino thinks you’re promoting them in a legit way. Anyway, with the Prettylinks plugin you can create redirects like “casinofunr3views(DOT)c0m/casino” will immediately redirect to the casino with your affiliate link, you can figure this out very very easily when you have Prettylinks in front of you.
Now, you still don’t have your affiliate link so you’ll only do this when you get it, here’s what you do. Click on “add post” and write a post about a game like “book of ra” making a fake review saying it looks good and it fun to play overall and rate it 7/10 or something and bla bla bla, add a picture of it and that’s it. Do this for a couple more games always WITHOUT ENCOURAGING GAMBLING, they have to look like posts aimed at sunday-gamblers who do it for fun.
When you ask for your application as an affiliate they will ask you for an url, send them your perfectly legit friendly gambling blog (casinofunr3views(DOT)c0m) when they approve you and you get the link create the redirect like casinofunr3views(DOT)c0m/casino or something like that
Now go to your other domain (makethatdr3ammoneynow(DOT)c0m) and basically only write one post writing “link to the website” (create hyperlink to your redirect link, NOT YOUR AFFILIATE LINK, so that the text “link to the website” sends to casinofunr3views(DOT)c0m/casino) and “link to the sequence” that you will upload somewhere for free download and create an hyperlink for that too.
In the video description type “for the website link and download link click h3re: makethatdr3ammoneynow(DOT)c0m” and they will land on your website that just presents them the 2 hyperlinks and that’s it. Perfect.
Then go back to casinofunr3views(DOT)c0m and create a new post and talk about the casino you’re an affiliate of, review it and say it looks very good, good design and all and very fun games, and create an hyperlink for it in the post, right on their name, like, if the casino’s name is “bananacasinogummybear” you write “so, i’ve recently played some games on bananacasinogummybear…. bla bla bla” and the hyperlink sends to “casinofunr3views(DOT)c0m/casino” AGAIN.
The purpose of all this thing is that the casino will see where the new subscribers come from, if you put the redirect right on youtube they’d know you’re using youtube, and they would only have to google the link to find your video. If you do this like i explained to you they will see the traffic is coming from the super legit blog you showed them. THIS IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT.
So, this was my very black hat and highly manipulative way to make lots of money quickly af (just create a fake fb profile, search gambler-games-related pages and add a few people and post a status saying “i will post a video showing you a crazy method to makes lots of money, ask your dearest friends to add me” and keep adding people too, just spam a bit, it will go kinda viral very quickly (because the method kinda looks like it really works, but it doesn’t, so people will be sharing your video even after trying for themselves)
Make sure you make the youtube video “not listed” if you want to be really safe, because even thought this is legal it’s really immoral, and i suggest you to take it down after you made enough money to start a morally legit business, make sure the video doesn’t go super viral or you’ll be forever known in history as the scammer guy, trust me, you might end on tv sooner than you think, so make sure you take everything down if the views start getting out of hand, and my best advice is to take it down anyway after making 200k out of this, that’s enough money to start an insanely profitable online business very easily, a business that would make you 50k a month too, but morally.
I don’t care about morality, but being tagged as a scammer won’t be good for you, so avoid that at all costs.
Enjoy the money you’ll be making by tricking a casino into thinking you're just an amateur blogger who has fun playing games while in reality you're turning strangers into gambling addicts (even tho most people will quit after wasting a grand or so, sometimes less, a grand could be 3k commissions for you tho) and don’t start gambling yourself, the method doesn’t work, i can guarantee, just looks like it if you’re lucky enough to get it on video. it’s just like the dudeperfect videos or the yeahigotskills guy, those are not 1st try shots, but look like it.
ONE LAST THING: make sure you crop the video so that it doesn’t show the url of the casino so that even the smart guys will have to click on your link, when they get there they will just be too lazy and join through your affiliate link anyway.

Thought I'd share my story on a throwaway account.
I'm a dude in his mid 20's. I got addicted to gambling at some point and started going there more and more often. During the worst of it, I went 3-4 times a week and stayed for hours on end. My most terrible memory is me playing 6 hands of Blackjack (going black every time) and missing. After blowing $2k, I go to the ATM and withdraw another $2k for another big final hand and put that on black too. It was red again (7th time in a row). The dealer then did an extra spin with no one betting and it landed on black finally. I still remember how shit I felt that night leaving my friends, going home, crying myself to sleep and feeling depressed for the next month.
Overall, I must have lost $15-25k total as my regular sessions I took in $400 - $1200, usually leaving with none. I actually vaguely recall only a few winning sessions (my biggest winning session was $650). My last session live session was 8 months ago (2 blackjack hands at $100 each and lost). My last online session was 6 months ago.
COVID has helped me avoid the casino since and I have decided to never go back again after doing some financial analysis of my spending and realising the casino is how my salary is getting crushed. In reality, I will still gamble but with very sensible risk.
Some things that have helped me:

1. Avoid friends who like to go to the casino or tell them you will never go again. The easiest way I was dragged back in is when someone convinces me to go.
2. Have the mentality that you are spending 100% of the amount you enter the casino with. You aren't gambling or making money. You are spending on entertainment at a high price! Seriously this tip helps a lot, whenever I consider gambling somewhere I say wait this is a scam why would I do it. Consider cocaine and hookers instead, probably more fun and cheaper.
3. Associate the casino with a scam, this helps a lot. Keep repeating how its a scam, all machines are rigged and only an idiot would get scammed like this. While this may not be true in the long run you'll lose all your money so it is a scam.
4. Find cheaper ways to enjoy the thrill. I still like gambling but gambling $50 on a sports game every 4 months is different than spending $1k on slots 3 times a week. Over the last 8 months, I spend $50 on an online poker casino and bet $20 on the US election. Overall a small amount relative to my salary which I can afford to lose. Win or lose here doesn't matter but its a bit of fun to be had.

Anyway, I rambled on a lot there and still disappointed in myself that I gambled so much money away. Thankfully it didn't ruin my life and if I now am responsible and gamble only a $50 here and there for fun and thrills it won't matter if I lose or win and I can live happy the rest of my life.

During my time in the borg, I have met far too many witnesses that have absolutely no grasp on their finances. It's especially sad to see in older and elderly witnesses. Many of them have to rely on the generosity of other witnesses and government help to get by. But you can't really blame them! We are taught to put the meetings and the preaching work above all else. We are even told to quit our jobs if they don't give us meeting or assembly days off. On top of that, many of these witnesses are planning their lives and finances around the idea of "the world could end tomorrow", so what good are material things?
As you leave the organization and learn the truth about the truth, you've probably come to the realization that no, the world is not going to end tomorrow. You have your whole life ahead of you! But that also means you need to prepare for your future, your grand plans, and your retirement. I've read many posts here from young exJWs and new exJWs that feel lost when they leave and are worried about providing for themselves after getting shunned by everyone they know and losing their entire support network. Well I believe that the best way to take control of your life is by taking control of your finances first! After all, you will just be faced with a mountain of stress if you aren’t able to maintain yourself and achieve your dreams in the world. You might even consider doing the unthinkable… Going back 0_0
Since leaving the Borg, I have gotten my bachelor's degree in finance. After trying out several different positions and companies, I now own my own Capital Management company. In short, I provide financial analysis services and advice for individuals and companies, as well as manage various investment portfolios. I figured why not help how I can? While this post is primarily targeted towards those just leaving or planning to leave, I hope everyone can find this advice helpful as you prepare for your bright future outside the Borg. I'm going to start with the very basics and work our way up. This is going to be very long, but I promise I'll try to make it entertaining and relevant to the exJW.
But first, legal disclaimer time - Don't sue me bro. I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. Do your own research. Don't YOLO Tesla Puts. Don't leave your inheritance to the Borg.
With that out of the way, lets dive in.
**1. Open a bank account! **
This seems very basic, but it is the most critical step to begin your path to financial freedom. I know many younger people may have relied on their parents to “hold” their money or had a joint account with a parent, but it’s time to control your own money. Don't just stuff money under your mattress or in your sock. At the bank of your choice, open both a checking account and a savings account. My advice for a checking account is Wells Fargo; they have branches across the US, as well as many thousands of ATMs all over the place. It's helpful to be able to easily get to a branch to talk to a human when you need help with your account. For savings accounts, my recommendation is Ally Bank. This is a fully online bank, so no branches, but thanks to that they typically have among the highest interest rates of the industry. They also have the highest rated customer service for a bank. You call them up, wait for a couple minutes, and you're talking to a human - no more yelling at a robot when you need help with your account.
Earning interest on your money is important because otherwise you are literally losing money thanks to a little thing called inflation. Briefly, this means that the value of $1 (or whatever your local currency) goes down over time. Typically in the US, it's around 2% per year. Over your whole lifetime of not dying in a fiery Armageddon, that's a whole lot of percents. Interest rates don't always match inflation for a few complex reasons, but Ally will usually pay you 1-2% a year on your money. That's better than 0% on the money under your mattress.
Most companies offer direct deposit for your paycheck so your money can go directly into your account rather than having to deal with checks, plus its free unlike cashing checks. Having a bank account also makes it easier to pay all your bills, and holy sh*t will you have bills when you're independent. But we'll get to that later.
On top of paying you interest and keeping your money safe, a huge reason to have and use a bank account is that you will always know exactly how much money you have, how much money you spend, and where your money went. This brings me to the next point...
**2. Make a budget! **
The next step to your financial Independence is making a budget to see how much money goes in and out of your account on a monthly basis. I recommend using the free Mint app by Quicken. This lets you link all your bank accounts, credit cards, investment accounts, and large assets in one place to keep track of everything. They also have a budget function where you can type in what you want to budget for every category, and they will automatically keep track of how you're doing every month.
Once you know how much money is going out every month, you know how much needs to come in. If more money is going out than is coming in, or you need to increase your savings, then you need to...
**3. Trim the fat off your budget! **
Pretty much all of us are guilty of spending more than we should. I mean we're accustomed to getting our Starbucks coffee right after the service group, going to our favorite return visit - the donut shop, stopping for lunch with the friends after knocking on 2 doors, and donating to global pedophile ring... But I digress. Now it's time to trim the fat! Any unnecessary expenses need to go in order to succeed in your final future. Now that you have a budget, you'll actually be able to tell what you can cut down on.
If you are spending $100+ on Starbuck coffee, cut that sh*t out! I don't care how many stars you're earning. Buy yourself a $10 drip coffee maker or a $20 stovetop espresso maker (even though its more work, I prefer the espresso maker). Then buy a bag of your favorite ground coffee, some milk or half and half, and a sh*t ton of sugar. Want to play barista in your own home? Buy some flavored coffee syrups to add to your coffee. You'll be able to recreate your Starbucks coffee flavored sugar beverage for a fraction of the cost. Usually under $1. You can even misspell your name on your cup for a more authentic experience.
Fairly universal expenses are Food, rent, and utilities. But even these can be cut down on.
For food, you might be tempted to go out and eat, get some fast food, or some takeout. Maybe even just survive off meals from the frozen aisle. These are the easiest options. But you will quickly rack up a significant food bill over the course of the month. Instead, try your hand at cooking! Start easy with some pasta. $1.50 for a box of pasta, and $2.50 for a jar of sauce. The ratio I use is 1 box of pasta to 1/2 a jar of sauce. This leaves my pasta with plenty of flavor and color but not a huge pool of sauce in my bowl. To cook - boil & salt water, throw pasta in for 10 minutes, drain, add sauce, mix, done! (*Instructions unclear, got baptized into a cult*). For this $2.75 you should end up with 3-4 servings of food (Less than $1 each!). Toss the leftovers in some Tupperware and you have your lunch for work and another dinner! My advice is to look up your favorite recipes online and just practice. You will very quickly learn how to make lots of great food and significantly cut down on your food budget. I just learned how to make Nigerian Jollof rice by reading recipes online! Another way to cut down on food expenses, BUY THE STORE BRAND!!!! There is absolutely no reason to buy name brand foods IMO. Kroger is my favorite, but Great Value and Market Pantry are just as good. You can also buy the off brands. Fruity pebbles and Dyno bites? Same sh*t.
For rent and utilities, get a roommate! By getting a roommate you can cut your rent in half. If getting a roommate isn't an option, then try looking for another smaller or cheaper apartment. If that's not an option, then go the opposite direction and find a bigger apartment with a roommate! Getting a roommate is the most effective way to cut down on your rent expense. Sure, it may be awkward at first to live with someone else, but your wallet will thank you and you may even make a friend! We all know those are in short supply when you leave the Borg...
Subscriptions are the biggest killer of any budget. They leach off your bank account every single month like a cancer. For years I subscribed to the gentleman’s box to get my tie and colorful socks of the month to rock at the meetings. But after leaving, I can count on one hand how many times I've worn a suit. Now I have a closet full of ties and a drawer full of socks and nowhere to wear them. Subscriptions have got to go!
After having watched years of the broadcast (*cough* propaganda *cough*), you may now be tempted to subscribe to every streaming service you can find to fill your brain with meaningless worldly TV. But don't overdo it! You don't need Netflix, Hulu, HBO, AND Disney+. Pick your favorite streaming service with the most shows you like to watch, and stick with that one for a while. You can only watch one thing at a time after all. Once you get bored with it, cancel it, and try another one. You can cancel these and restart them at any time, and for the most part the content isn't going anywhere. There’s also YouTube, which is free. There is a mind-blowing amount of professionally made content on YouTube completely free, I guarantee you will find channels and shows you like watching. Sure, there's commercials, but that just gives you time to look at a couple memes on exjwhumor.
These are just some basic suggestions for how to cut out or reduce some large expenses. If you want to dive deeper in to saving even in the small places in your budget, you should explore some ideas of a frugal lifestyle. I find it kind of fun seeing everywhere you can save money by adding just a small amount of effort. Over time, these small efforts can really start to add up to some serious savings.
Once you cut down on your expenses, you should have a nice jingle in your pocket left over at the end of every month. **Don't forget to treat yourself! ** I'm not telling you to buy a jet ski or the newest iPhone with your extra money. In fact, you should be saving most of that extra money! (But we'll get to that next). You have just gotten out of a long-term toxic relationship and you need to take care of yourself. Give yourself a nice little discretionary budget every month to do whatever you want to do with it. If you like getting a manicure or pedicure (fellas, you don't know what you're missing out on), treat yourself! If you want to go get an ice cream or some dessert, treat yourself! Want to buy that video game that you have been dying to play? Treat yourself! If possible for your budget situation, try to give yourself $100 a month (or whatever you can) to do something you want to do.
**4. Start an emergency fund! **
The current pandemic and economic crisis show better than anything why you need to have an emergency fund. One day to the next you could be out of work, of you could have your hours cut, or you could fall ill and not be able to work. The average American can't afford a $500 emergency, and I don't want that to be you now that you don't have your support network anymore. Your emergency fund should be in its own high interest savings account. You want it to be easily accessible for when you need it, but not so easy that you might use it when you see a top at H&M that you just can't live without.
The rule of thumb is to keep 6 months worth of expenses, though having more doesn't hurt. Set your own goal based on what you think you need. The Mint app can also help you set and track a savings goal. On your budget, look at your monthly expenses and multiply x 6. This number may seem daunting at first, but remember that you don't need to get it all at once. Take your time and plan it based on your budget. Now that you have trimmed the fat off your budget, you might have some leftover money burning a hole in your pocket. But don't succumb to the temptation to spend! At the end of the month (or the end of the pay period), move all your leftover money into your emergency fund! No matter how big or small, contribute to your emergency fund every month.
But now that you have this pile of money staring at you in your bank account, you're going to need to set yourself some ground rules. Limit yourself on what you can spend this money on. Don't break open this piggy bank just because its Prime day and everything on your wish list is on sale, or because Gabe Newell decided to put an 80% discount on all your favorite Steam games. This is an EMERGENCY fund! Use it when your car gets a flat tire and you can't afford to fix it. Use it when you get an unexpected medical bill you can't pay. And of course, use it if you're laid off or can't work.
**5. Get a credit card and build credit! **
Getting a credit card may seem counter intuitive because you're taking out debt, but that's not really what it means. When you buy things on a credit card, after you get your statement at the end of the billing cycle you get a whole month to pay it interest free. *whispers* It's free money. The key is PAY OFF YOUR CREDIT CARDS! The interest rates on credit cards are f*cking painful, don't do that to yourself. If you're carrying a credit card balance, then pay that sh*t off as fast as you can or it will snowball into a nightmare.
When you get a credit card, they check your credit. If you have no credit history, it’s kind of hard to get a credit card but not impossible. However, it is nearly impossible to get any other type of loan, at least at any reasonable interest rate. This will especially hurt when you are trying to buy a house in the future. However, once you get a credit card, they will start reporting your credit usage every month to the credit bureaus which will start to build your credit history. Remember how you thought you would no longer get graded on anything when you left school? Guess what! You get graded on how well you can manage your debt. If your balance stays reasonable and you pay off your balance when its due, your credit score will go up. If you max out your cards, and let the balance roll, your credit score will go down.
Download Credit Karma, type in your info, and check out your credit score for free. It even updates every 7 days so you can keep track of how you’re doing. If you have absolutely zero credit history, it may not work right away. But that doesn't mean it won't work or that you can't get a credit card. It is very very very important to know your credit score and to keep it high because banks will judge you based on your credit score the minute you walk through the door. Remember how worldlies looked in jeans and a T-Shirt the first time they came to a meeting? That’s how a bank will see you with your sh*tty credit score. You gotta pump those numbers up!
Discover bank is a great credit card provider for starter cards. But you can google "started cards" and find tons of lists of different starter cards. If this is your first credit card, just spam applications until you get approved for one. Pay attention to your credit limit. A pretty standard limit is for your first card is $1,000. You may look at that and think "Cool! I always wanted to buy those sweet pinky rings the GB wear!" WRONG! Use your credit responsibly. Ideally you want to keep your credit usage under 30% of your limit. At $1000 this would be $300. But always remember to only spend what you can actually pay off when the bill comes due. Follow your budget!
Once you get your first card and manage your credit nicely, you should try applying for cards once a year. Pick a month where you will apply to several credit cards to expand your access to credit. For me this is the month of November. I will usually apply to 3 credit cards I've thoroughly researched. Focus on credit cards with no fees. There is absolutely no reason you should be paying an annual fee on a credit card when there are so many free ones out there. Also look for cash back cards. It means you will earn money just by spending money. *whispers* It's free money. Even if I get approved for all 3 credit cards, I won't use them. I'll just throw these somewhere super safe like my underwear drawer. If one of your new cards gives you a significantly higher credit limit, or gives you lots of cash back, then start using that as your primary and put the rest somewhere safe. Effectively, you are raising your credit limit every year while (hopefully) keeping your expenses the same. On your credit report it will look like you have access to a huge amount of money, but use a smaller and smaller portion of it. It will make you look responsible and in turn raise your credit score over time. Now when you walk into a bank, they'll look at you like you would look at the visiting speaker from South America when they walked into the kingdom hall. Banks may even take you out to eat after (with all that cash back they give you).
As you move through your life, it is very important to have a good credit score. That is what will allow you to get a good rate on a car loan (I don't recommend that, but that’s a story for another day), and also get a good rate on a mortgage when you buy a house. Debt isn't always a bad thing as long as you know how to manage it well.
**6. Make a Career Move! **
This may seem like a crazy option, but it serves a great purpose. If you are stuck in a dead-end job, if you don't make the kind of money you want to be making, or you don't see making a career out of your job, then its time to switch jobs! We have been told to avoid higher education our whole lives but that just forces us in to sh*t dead end jobs dreaming about how wonderful paradise will be instead of going out and grabbing life by the horns. Invest in yourself! Invest in your knowledge! Quarantine lock down is the perfect time to do that, and it doesn't look like its wrapping up anytime soon. Personally, I'm taking online classes to become a Real Estate Broker. This will let me expand what I am able to do with my company and increase my income. These classes were only $800, compared to going to college for 4 years to the tune of $20k+ per year. If you have some savings, use that to invest in yourself! If you want to change to a different career path, then look into what you need to do to make the move. Look for online courses or trade school if you don't want to go to college years or incur lots of debt.
Here's some examples of careers that don't take a lot of education but can take your income to the next level:
*Real Estate Agent or Broker
*Plumber
*Computer Technician
*Programmer
*Electrician
*Electric Pole Climber
*Mechanic
The world is full of options. Now that you aren't committed to studying for 2 meetings a week, attending 2 meetings every week, reading the bible every day, personal study, family study, monthly broadcast, and service on your off days, you should have much more free time to invest in yourself. Take advantage of that and move up in the world! Do what you never could have while drinking the Kool aid.
**7. Side Hustle! **
A great way to increase your income is to take on a side hustle. There are so many you can do (just google side hustles), but some of the easiest to get in to are being a food delivery driver. This is especially good business right now during the pandemic with everyone staying home. Sign up with Doordash, Postmates, Uber Eats, InstaCart, or any other delivery service you can. After gas and maintenance, you will typically earn an average hourly rate of $10-$15. Sometimes more. Like I mentioned in the last point, you should have a lot more free time to yourself now that you are not drinking the Kool aid. Why not take advantage of that time to make more money?
If your primary income covers all your expenses, you can use all your side hustle income towards your emergency fund, general savings, or investing. Personally, I use all my side hustle income towards increasing my investment accounts. Rather than making $10 an hour, in the long run you can turn that money into much much more by investing it.
**8. Start Investing! (Retirement Accounts) **
Now we're getting to the good stuff. Now that you have a bank account, a budget, and an emergency fund, it's time to start thinking about your future. The world isn't going to end in our lifetimes, although 2020 looks pretty dicey so who knows. You are going to want to stop working one day in your old age and relying on government cheese doesn’t give you too much freedom. This is where retirement accounts come in. The two primary types of retirement accounts are an IRA (Individual Retirement Account) and a 401k (four-oh-one-khay). The main difference is that an IRA is self directed, ie. you fully manage the account, and a 401k is employer directed, ie. your employer or benefit provider manages the account.
Let's start with a 401k. Most companies where you would have a career offer a 401k as part of your benefit package. The Benefit part of this package is that your employer will give you free money!!!! Kinda. Back in the olden days of the pre-1980s, a company would pay you a salary, called a pension, when you retired at 60ish as a thank you for your loyalty and career with that company. Then in 1978, 401ks became a thing and employers realized they didn't have to treat you like a human and reward your loyalty anymore. Instead, most employers will match your 401k contributions. It varies by company, but an example is that if you put 6% of your salary into your 401k, your employer will match your contribution adding another 6%. They may match it in full or in part, again it all depends on the company rules. But in some cases this could double how much money goes in to your retirement account just by using this one easy trick. The key to a 401k is that the money has to come directly out of your paycheck, you can't go back and add more later. But this can be a benefit; if you never had that money in your bank account to spend on a pair of Yeezys, it’s almost like you never earned it so you won't miss it. Plus, when you finally do get access to that money in retirement, it will be worth more and you'll be able to buy even more pairs of Yeezys!
On the other hand, with an IRA you can add however much you want, whenever you want, up to the legal limit. The current IRA contribution limit in 2020 is $6,000 per year. There are some tricky ways you can get around that but I won't get in to that here. Just google "backdoor Roth IRA" if you plan on contributing more than $6,000 a year. With an IRA, you get to choose the provider, you get to chose what you invest in, and you get to chose when and how much to invest. If you’re young, a high stock (high risk, high return) and low bond (low risk, low return) mix is best for your retirement account. You can afford more risk since you have more time to recover. However, as you get older you will want to slowly reduce how much you have in stocks and increase how much you have in bonds. The older you get, the more your risk tolerance goes down.
Now let’s talk Roth. To Roth or not to Roth? Well that depends. If you're under 59, you get charged penalties to access your IRA, or 55 for your 401k. In other words, you aren't supposed to access these accounts till you are (close to) retirement age. When you contribute money to a traditional IRA or Traditional 401k, you are contributing pre-tax money. You won't pay taxes on that money until you take it out at retirement age. The issue with that is that hopefully, that money will be worth a sh*t ton more when you retire than when you put it in. You'll be paying taxes on a bigger pile of money! Thats where a Roth IRA and Roth 401k come in. With a Roth account, you are contributing Post-tax money, or money you already paid taxes on. When you go to take the money out in retirement, its tax free! And everything you do in those accounts is tax free! My personal recommendation would be to go with a Roth account, especially if you are young. We all know to "Give to Caesar what is Caesars" (or whatever the f*ck that book says, I never read it), but you want to give Caesar as little as possible so you end up with more money in your pocket.
The best thing you can do for your future is invest in your retirement. You don't want to be working at 70 just to make ends meet. Future you will thank you.
**9. Start Investing! (Personal Accounts) **
Personal Investing! This is investing with (almost) no restrictions! When you invest into non-retirement accounts, you will be able to access this money whenever you want and do whatever you want with it. Almost. Don't buy drugs. Unless you're into that… When I'm talking about investing in this section, I'm talking about stock market investing. The best way to grow your wealth long term is by investing your money. When you invest, your money starts making you money. So even though you work the same amount, and get paid the same amount, by investing your money you are making more money because your money starts working for you. In general, you should be investing for the long term. This is for a couple of reasons - 1. you're more likely to make money over the long term than the short term, and 2. you'll pay less taxes on what you earn in the long term than the short term. Long term would be anything more than a year. Sure, you can go on to WallStreetBets and see people making a killing by day trading, but you can find far more people losing their asses day trading. I’m going to focus on long term strategies.
When you invest, there are 2 main strategies - Growth, or Income. Growth investing is if you want your money to grow at a good rate over time. Your $100 today will be worth $150 tomorrow (Not really that quick, but you get the point). The stock price itself will go up, so when you sell it in the future it will be worth more. Good long-term growth stocks would be Apple, Amazon, Coca Cola, and other large established companies. I would say Tesla, but who knows what the f*ck is going on with Tesla stock. One tweet from Elon can wipe out your investment or double your money. Income investing is if you are trying to get a second source of income. This is through stocks that pay dividends - once every 3 months they will pay their shareholders a piece of the profit they have made. This is straight up cash deposited into your investment account just for owning certain stocks. You can either reinvest this money to grow your investments, or you can deposit it into your bank account and use it. If you're young, the best thing to do is focus on growth and reinvest any dividends you get. Either strategy you choose, you can be making much larger returns on your money than you would on a bank account or by not investing. Investing is magic. Though they won't admit it, even the Borg has sizeable investment accounts to grow their money. Yes, they rely on the world that they condemn so much. As those CSA cases get more expensive, they need more money with which to pay them. The Mormon church has over $100 billion invested, one of the largest investment funds in the world. Investing is the smart thing to do with your money.
So while the people living "the best life ever" are dreaming about where they want to travel in paradise, you can use your growth or dividends to actually go there. The more you cut your expenses, the more you can afford to invest. The more you invest, the more money you will make in the long term. If you invest enough, you can even generate a completely independent source of income from your job which will go a long way in granting you financial freedom. My goal is to invest at least 50% of my income, but currently I'm at 20%. Try to invest as much as you can. Future you will thank you.
The way you choose to invest will fully depend on your comfort level with investing and your investing budget. Yes, you should have an investing budget.
Let’s say your comfort level is zero and/or your budget is very small. Then I would recommend Acorns. Acorns is a round up or spare change investing app. You link your credit cards and bank accounts, and every time you spend, it will round up your purchase and invest that. Say you buy a pastry for $1.75, Acorns will pull $0.25 out of your account and invest it, bringing your total to $2. You can choose from conservative through aggressive portfolios. If you are young, I would recommend you lean more towards aggressive investing. There is more risk involved, but you can also make much more money than a conservative portfolio. If you are young, you can afford some down days in the market. The one issue I have with acorns is that they charge a $1 a month fee, though this is very low.
If you are more comfortable with investing, have a larger budget, but still want a hands-off approach, then I would recommend M1 Finance. This is a portfolio-based investment platform where you pick what stocks you want to invest in, pick how much you want to invest in each based on percentages, and M1 will handle the rest. They have a minimum investment of $100 to open your account, then only $10 each time you invest every time after. For long term growth, I would recommend doing a portfolio with 50% allocation of SPY (S&P 500 Index tracking fund, tracks the largest 500 stocks on the US Stock market), and 50% other stocks you like. Follow the Warren Buffet investment method. Like Coca Cola? Invest in Coca Cola. Like Target? Invest in Target. If you like something, chances are that other people like them too and the stock will keep growing. Every time you add money to your account, M1 will automatically invest it in the allocation you chose. If you chose 50% SPY, 25% Coca Cola, and 25% Target, when you add $10 M1 will buy $5 worth of SPY stock, $2.5 worth of Coca Cola stock, and $2.5 worth of Target stock. This is a great option if you want easy investing, and its completely free.
Now if you're more advanced and comfortable fully running and managing your portfolio, then I would recommend Robinhood. With Robinhood, there are no minimums, and you can buy fractional shares. But you are fully in control of exactly where your money goes when you invest it. You want to buy 10 shares of Coca Cola? Then you click on KO, click buy, type in 10 shares, and boom, you own 10 shares. Robinhood even lets you trade options, but this is effectively just gambling on the stock market and I don't recommend it. Robinhood is also completely free and is a great and easy to use full-service investment platform.
I recommend these because I use all of them myself. I won't include my referral links on this post, but if you want to get some free stuff when you sign up for any of them just PM me which ones you want and I'll send you a referral. With a referral link you can get some free money or free stocks.
Invest your money! It will take you a long way towards your independence from the borg!
**10. Invest in Real Estate! **
Now we're getting really crazy. Though it may not be as crazy as it sounds. I won't go in to too much depth in this since there is so much information.
Real estate is by definition a long-term investment. It is highly illiquid, meaning you can't quickly turn your investment in to cash, but the beauty of real estate is that you can earn a wonderful income off of it. The easiest way to invest in real estate is by investing in REITs, or Real Estate Investment Trusts. These are portfolios managed by companies backed by real estate assets that generate a regular income, usually on a monthly basis. REITs are required by law to pay out 90% of their profits to shareholders. There are publicly traded REITs on the stock market you can invest in (Ticker Symbols - O, BPY, IVR, WPG, PEI, and many more). While the barrier to entry on these is very low (you can buy just one share at a time), and they have higher liquidity, they carry a lot more risk because their price moves with the stock market rather than based on the underlying real estate they own. They do still pay very nice dividends which can supplement your income.
The way that I would recommend investing in real estate would be through Fundrise. They have a minimum investment of $500 to open your account, and $100 minimum investment every time after. Since this is a private REIT, the prices remain stable even if the market is fluctuating like crazy. Personally, my Fundrise investment account is the only one that didn't lose money during the 2020 economic crisis. Plus they pay out very nice dividends, and the real estate assets appreciate nicely. Again, this is a LONG TERM investment. Don't expect to invest today and pull your cash out 6 months from now. Ideally you want to keep this money invested for years. If you want an income, you can set your dividends to deposit into your bank account, or if you want to grow your investment you can set dividends to be reinvested.
Investing in REITs is a great way to get started with real estate investing. Real estate is a "get rich slow" scheme. It may take a very long time for your investments to grow, but they will see very long-term stable growth. If the Borg is nothing else, it is a massive global real estate holding company. They own all the kingdom halls which are essentially big commercial buildings with empty interiors. They have great resale value, and since many of them were built and maintained with free labor, they have appreciated tremendously. So take a book out of the Borgs secret playbook and invest in real estate.
**11. Buy a House! **
This seems like its way out of reach to many people but it's really not. Owning a house is the single biggest indicator of wether a family will accumulate wealth or not. For most homeowning families, their house is their single biggest asset. Real estate has historically always appreciated, so when you go to sell your house or pass it down your house to your children, it will be worth more than when you bought it. Sometimes a lot more. I won't go into a huge amount of detail because again, there is a lot of information.
Once again, real estate is a very long-term asset. So make sure that you are ready to buy a house. Take your time, do your research, and find the right house. Thanks to the magic of leverage by using a mortgage, you only need to put 3% down to buy a house. While this will definitely mean you will have a higher interest rate, it also makes buying a house much more accessible. Say you want to buy a $300k house, the minimum you would have to put down is $9,000! Traditionally you would put down 20% on a house which in this case would be $60k. Always go with a 30 year mortgage, cuz math and numbers; don't do a 15 year mortgage. Yes, it is very daunting that you will be paying for your house for 30 years, but think about it this way - if you're not paying a mortgage, you're going to be paying rent for a place to live. When you pay rent, you are essentially throwing money out the window never to be seen again. When you pay a mortgage, a portion of your monthly payment goes towards equity in your house. You are buying a piece of your house every month, not just throwing money out the window.
When you pay rent, you are paying your landlords mortgage + profit that goes into their pocket. You are the one buying your landlords house for them. When you are paying a mortgage, you are paying interest on your loan + equity in your house (the balance of the loan). You are effectively paying yourself when you pay the balance of the loan because that piece of equity in your house is now yours to keep. You may even find that your mortgage payments are lower than your rent. In my case, I went from renting a 3 bedroom 2 bath apartment to paying a mortgage on a 4 bedroom 2 bath house and my monthly payments went down by over $500!! That's an extra $500 in my pocket every month to do as I please with (like invest it).
Additionally, you can buy more houses and rent them out! Then you become the landlord, and your tenants are the ones buying your house for you. That is the magic of real estate investing. If you want to learn more about mortgages or real estate investing, just watch some Graham Stephan videos on YouTube.
When you're young, buying a house might not be at the front of your mind or in your near-term plans. But you should absolutely plan on buying a house as soon as you have the credit (remember I told you why you need credit?) and the money for it. Buying a nice car might seem like a better use of your thousands or tens of thousands of dollars instead of buying a house. But how much is that car going to be worth in 10 years? Chances are it will have almost no resale value left. It will also be way out of style and may not even run well anymore. But if you put that money down on a house? You will own an appreciating asset (an asset that goes up in value) that you can sell down the road and get your money back.
**Closing Thoughts**
YOU ARE FREE! You have made the biggest step towards having a great life already by leaving the organization. Things may seem very overwhelming right now that you are stepping out from behind the curtain and looking at the real world for the first time. But don't panic! It gets better, I promise you. Me and many thousands of others on exJW can tell you that though stressful, leaving was the best decision we have made in our lives. I hope all this information will help you make some better informed decisions on how to financially prepare yourself to step in to the world. We have all been told that it is too difficult out in the world and that we will never make it, but I'm here to tell you that you can and you will! Focus on yourself, take care of yourself, and enjoy your freedom! :)